China's nonferrous output set to grow 15% in 2007: CNMIA

Nonferrous metal production in China is expected to grow by 15% in 2007, led by aluminium and copper, boosted by mounting demand, China Daily reported Tuesday, quoting an industry organization.

The combined production of 10 main metals aluminium, copper, lead, zinc, nickel, tin, magnesium, titanium, antimony and mercury will reach 22 million mt in 2007, up from 19.17 million mt last year, said Kang Yi, president of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association.


The 2006 figure made China the world's top nonferrous metal manufacturer for a fifth consecutive year.

Kang said aluminium production would climb to 11 million mt this year from 9.35 million mt in 2006.

In the meantime, copper production would increase to 3.45 million mt from 3 million mt, he said.

Kang said China's demand for nonferrous metals would continue to grow this year thanks to booming metal-consuming industrial sectors such as real estate and cars. But he did not provide a specific forecast for 2007 demand.

"Prices (of nonferrous metals) will continue to sway at high levels this year," Kang said.

In 2006, prices of many nonferrous metals such as aluminium, copper, zinc and nickel hit record highs at home and abroad as a result of strong demand and hedge funds buying up metals futures.

Liu Defei, an analyst with Beijing-based metal industry consultancy Antaike Information Development, said domestic aluminium demand would surge by 28% to 10.8 million mt this year from 2006. The growth is up from the 21% reported last year, Liu said.

Meanwhile, Kang predicted China's production of alumina, the raw material used to make aluminium, would jump to 20 million mt in 2007 from 13.7 million mt in 2006, driven by swelling aluminium production.

Li Yusheng, also from Antaike, said copper demand in China would rise by 5.5% to 3.8 million mt this year. But the pace is down from the 9.2% posted in 2006, Li said, attributing this largely to high copper prices. "Due to lofty copper prices, many copper users in China are shifting to other relatively cheap metals, such as aluminium and alloy, to cut costs," he said.

Both the Antaike analysts, however, said prices of aluminium and copper would decline this year from the sensational levels of 2006. Liu said average aluminium prices in China would stand at around Yuan 18,000($2,326)/mt this year, down from more than Yuan 20,000/mt in 2006. Li said domestic copper prices would tumble to some Yuan 50,000/mt on average, down from Yuan 60,000/mt.

Last year's bullish prices saw the nonferrous metal industry rake in Yuan 110.03 billion in profits for 2006, doubling 2005's total, according to the association. Fixed-assets investment in the sector reached Yuan 118.08 billion last year, up 36.44%.The growth rate was down 6 percentage points from 2005 as a result of the government's macroeconomic controls.







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