Will“New Year’s Offensive”Again?December Antimony Market Analysis and Outlook .

The international market remain ease with less demand, the turning point expected by the producers and traders have not appeared, how far is it from the 6000 $/MT target is still a big question. Will the “New Year’s Offensive” again? The market might give answer soon.
Market review and analysis:
With the easy demand, the international quotation of 5500-5600$/MT has last over a month, meanwhile, the domestic market is still running at low level. Price at Lengshuijiang district is also of distinct call-back.The international market was also of trendency of call- back from the beginning of December. Quotation for antimony metal 99.65% of Dec.6 exRotterdam warehouse published in < London Metal Bullin > was 5400 to 5500$/MT,100$/MT lower than previous quotation. However, while people think the maket will down futher, a serious mine accident happen at Xikuangshan mine area.State mine safety administrative institute involved the accident investigation and closed some small mines, which affected the supply in certain degree,and supported the market powerfully. The international market came back to 5500-5600$/MT then. At the same time the domestic market also recovered to 42000 to 43000 RMB/MT.But the market turn to ease again as no further positive news followed. In January 2006, the antimony market started its increasing with “New Year’s Offensive”. Will “New Year’s Offensive” again in a dull market of the start of year 2007.
Recently, the market is dull with small transaction, many consumption enterprises have almost used up their stock, so a wave of purchasing is coming before the spring festival which will push the market up. Actually, the market recovering tendency has appeared at the end of year 2006. The domestic keeping grewing continouesly. The international market will following this increasing certainly. Moreover, even though with some negative factors, the demend will stable and grow. And the supply of raw material still tight. These factors will be the main force to push the market up. So, there will be a great chance that the “New Year’s Offensive” will come again.


No.2 : Data Statistics
It is published by Non-ferrous Metal Industry Institute that Antimony Production was increased during Nov,2006 ,viz,Antimony Metal ,13,950 M/T , Totally Antimony Metal (Sb content) Production is 137,482.00M/T from Jan-2006 to Nov-2006 which increased 6.88% compared with the same period, it is estimated that there is 5% increasing rate between 2005 and 2006. Hunan and Guangxi are still the main areas where drive the production increasing rate. It is 9,811 M/T production quantity of Nov,2006 in Hunan Province ,total production quantity of antimony metal is 86,815Mt from Jan to Nov,2006,cumulative increasing 11.42%.It is 1,973M/T production quantity of Nov,2006 in Guangxi province ,total production of antimony metal is 28,306Mt from Jan to Nov,2006 ,cumulative increasing 12.08%. It is totally 57,562 M/T production quantity of antimony metal from Jan to Nov, 2006 in China, cumulative increasing 5.07%.

Table No.1 Antimony Metal & Antimony Refined Ore Production Information
Of Each Area During Nov ,2006
Unit：M/T

Area
Antimony Metal
Antimony Refined Ore（Sb content）

November
Cumulative Amount
Contrast
November
Cumulative Amount
Contrast

Hunan
9811
86815
11.42
3624
34360
19.89

Guangxi
1973
28306
12.08
1373
13869
-26.93

Guizhou
522
3523
-19.11
27
375
-41.31

Yunnan
1141
12122
-5.02
165
1638
-19.55

Jiangxi
200
1755
-26.36
48
494
15.42

Ningxia
86
1081
33.62
-
-
-

Chongqing
85
1080
-2.53
-
-
-

Shanxi

1137
151.55
219
2022
-28.53

Gansu

745
-64.83
0
0
-

Henan
-
-
-
391
2072
70.53

Guangdong
132
916
-37.73
0
0
-

Total
13950
137482
6.88
6083
57562
5.07

Note： The above parameters come from Non-ferrous Industry Institute


It is stated by China Customs that antimony metal import have been sharp cutoff during Nov,2006 ,viz 767,58M/T quantity within this month .Totally imported quantity of antimony metal from Jan to Nov,2006 is 18,018Mt ,cumulative decreasing 1.55% . There are also decreasing situations in Russia, Tajikistan, and Burma, Compared with them Viet Nam and Bolivia are increasing.

Table No.2 Antimony Refined Ore Imported Information of
each Original Area during Nov,2006
(Unit:M/T ,10,000 USD )

Country Name
Production
/Month
Cumulative
Amount
Contrast
%
Month
/Sum
Cumulative
Sum
Contrast
%

Russia
300.84
4597.47
-18.24
95.90
1034.06
34.5

Tajikistan
0.00
4734.1
1.67
0.00
470.37
14.24

Kazakhstan
0.00
1582.26
-26.13
0.00
152.41
-12.48

Burma
39.00
1591.00
-41.6
1.85
55.94
-20.86

Korea
0.00
23.00

0.00
0.16


Morocco
0.00
21.16
-13.23
0.00
2.41
-18.21

Bolivia
46.04
2627.88
62.32
13.34
436.61
118.85

Laos
0.00
170
-
0.00
6.62
-

Vietnam
381.7
1713.67
561.65
8.08
58.09
569.13

Guatemala
0.00
87.10
-
0.48
0.00
-

Total
767.58
18018
-1.55
119.17
2328.57
37.88


There is 71,131.97 M/T Chinese antimony products have been exported from Jan to Nov,2006,cumulative decreasing 6.65% Antimony Trioxide ,Cumulative exporter 50,118.22M/T ,increasing 5.58% ,Antimony Ingot export have been increased ,that is 2,138.7Mt in Nov,2006, Totally exported 19,488.85Mt from Jan to Nov,2006 ,cumulative decreasing 28.19% We have totally imported 28,549.00M/T antimony product from Jan to Nov,2006,cumulative decreasing 2.04% .

Table No.3 Antimony Product Import & Export Quantity Information
Unit :M/T


Export
Import

Quantity
November
Cumulative Amount
Contrast
%
Quantity
November
Cumulative Amount
Contrast
%

Antimony
Crude
-
-
-
0
19.49
-33.63

Other Antimony Ore and Refined Ore
-
-
-
767.58
18018
-1.55

Antimony
Oxide
4680.27
50118.22
5.58
705.46
4207.41
57.37

Antimony
Sulfide
196
1379.9
-5.95
3
48.5
-11.57

Unforging
Rolling Antimony
2138.7
19488.85
-28.19
960.01
6162.28
-10.17

Antimony
Powder
-
5
-
0.03
23.03
366.15

Antimony
Particle
-
-
-
0.00
0.00
-

Other Antimony and Antimony Product
0.00
140.00
14.9
3.00
70.58
-16.28

Total
7014.97
71131.97
-6.65
2439.05
28549.3
2.04


Table No.4 Antimony Trioxide Exported Information
to Each Region During Nov,2006
Unit : M/T ,10,000 USD

Country
Name
Quantity
Cumulative
Amount
Contrast
%
Sum
Cumulative
Sum
Contrast
%

Japan
1279.96
13934.0
-7.4
623.04
6187.45
35.88

Holland
240
5090.1
-33.29
106.34
2003.94
-3.03

U.S.A.
1269.05
8137.34
14.34
598.85
3411.37
68.74

Hong
Kong
608
8015.8
21.55
256.22
3198.32
73.31

Korea
377.36
6468.47
26.35
176.91
2742.72
92.52

Taiwan
220.05
2560.05
57.06
96.70
1039.60
147.44

Germany
120.7
968.15
11.57
54.60
391.18
55.47

South
Africa
0.00
320.00
60
0.00
135.08
119.89

Thailand
10.00
385
89.19
4.73
165.78
180.33

Columbia
0.00
0.1
-
0.00
0.02
-

U.K
20.00
140.00
133.33
9.66
61.94
284.6

Russia
20.00
159.96
699.79
8.8
65.35
1212.18

Canada
0.00
860
22.86
0.00
336.64
74.67

Australia
0.00
32.00
-36
0.00
15.10
3.72

Singapore
175.00
627.00
248.33
85.04
294.98
471.66

New
Zealand
5.00
25.00

2.36
12.36


Italy
0.00
367.00
66.82
0.00
159.01
133.11

Spain
0.00
66.00

0.00
31.80


Czech
0.00
220.00
-31.89
0.00
98.14
-5.91

India
61.00
487.7
16.19
30.22
210.71
77.05

Indonesia
10.00
114.00
38.18
5.42
51.49
112.88

Israel
0.00
120.00
140.00
0.00
52.67
251.18

Mexico
160.00
460.00
2090.48
78.00
210.4
2232.10

Iran
0.00
55.00
450
0.00
21.68
694.14

Lithuania
20.00
65.00
-
10.94
31.63
-

Total
4680.27
50118
5.58
2186.96
21115.2
55.28


Table No.5 Antimony Ingot Export Information to
each Region During Nov,2006
Unit : M/T ,10,000USD

Country
Quantity
Cumulative
Amount
Contrast
%
Sum
/Month
Cumulative
Sum
Contrast
%

Holland
94
3493.66
-36.42
45.62
1428.81
-8.84

Japan
340.7
4652.25
-23.24
155.01
1895.23
16.98

Korea
200.00
1378.94
-56.77
88.00
561.98
-39.53

Belgium
0.00
520.00
-61.22
0.00
175.06
-51.22

USA
420.00
1900.00
26.67
206.02
870.76
94.09

Taiwan
20.00
60.00
-72.79
9.97
26.02
-61.2

Mexico
0.00
200.00
-81.62
0.00
50.00
-83.64

Brazil
20.00
108.00
4.85
10.32
38.82
7.58

Thailand
20.00
40.00
100
9.95
18.30
201.9

Australia
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0.00
-

Hong
Kong
1020.00
6947.00
-6.4
506.6
2951.85
55.44

Total
2138.7
19488.9
-28.19
1031.49
8095.03
8.54


Market Prospect

Although international market price have entered into adjustment period ,the native manufacturing enterprise have began to increase their offers .It is reported by professional staff in antimony line owing the safety inspection which have influenced antimony production ,”Antimony Mine supplying will inescapability not avoid to influence our antimony ingot production .It is said by one Hunan based producer who have increased the quotation of the # 2 Antimony Ingot .Meanwhile some traders have also adjusted their quotations .Although the market is dead-alive during the recent period ,the native market returns to be the situation that suppliers are reluctant to sell .

We are sure that the producers and traders will take this opportunity to enhance the price increasing. It is estimated that the antimony market will still adjust to a high peak position in Jan,2007 and also which will continue.


消息來源